OPEC+ Expected to Keep November Oil Output Targets Unchanged Amid Middle East Disruptions

OPEC+ is expected to leave its oil production targets unchanged for November as continuing disruptions to crude exports in the Middle East complicate the group’s efforts to increase supply, according to three sources familiar with the discussions.

The oil producers’ alliance is due to meet on Sunday, with the group expected to maintain its existing November targets rather than announce another increase.

The development comes after OPEC+ countries had spent much of 2026 gradually raising production targets following years of coordinated supply cuts. However, much of that planned increase has not translated into actual additional exports because of disruptions linked to the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, according to the supplied report.

OPEC+ November output targets likely to remain steady

The OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and producers such as Russia, is expected to keep its November production targets unchanged.

Three people familiar with the talks said the group had agreed in principle to maintain the current targets.

That decision would reflect the unusual gap between nominal production quotas and the amount of crude several members are actually able to export.

Gulf OPEC+ producers have reportedly been operating well below their output targets as continuing regional disruptions have affected shipments.

Oil exports remain below normal levels

According to the information supplied, exports from Gulf OPEC+ producers have fluctuated at approximately 60% to 80% of normal levels in recent months.

The disruptions have made it more difficult for the group to translate higher official output targets into actual supplies reaching international markets.

As a result, the increase in OPEC+ production targets announced during 2026 has largely remained a paper increase rather than a corresponding rise in physical exports.

The situation also complicates the organisation’s longer-term planning because policymakers must assess how much each producer can realistically supply under changing market conditions.

Core OPEC+ members still producing below pre-war levels

OPEC data cited in the supplied report shows that the alliance’s seven core members produced around 25 million barrels per day in August, an increase of approximately 630,000 barrels per day from July.

Despite the monthly increase, production remained around 5 million barrels per day below February levels before the conflict.

The seven members are:

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.

Their combined output is therefore still well below the level that existed before the disruption began.

About 2 million barrels per day of cuts remain

OPEC+ continues to maintain roughly 2 million barrels per day of production cuts covering most members, according to the supplied material.

The group has been gradually easing restrictions, but the pace of any further increases could depend heavily on its assessment of actual production capacity and market conditions.

A capacity review has become particularly important because it will help determine how future production increases should be distributed among members.

Capacity review faces further uncertainty

The conflict has also delayed an OPEC+ review of members’ production capacity.

That assessment is considered important because it would help determine 2027 production quotas.

However, disruptions to exports and uncertainty over future operating conditions have made it harder to establish reliable estimates of each producer’s sustainable capacity.

Industry sources cited in the supplied report said the review had therefore been delayed.

Without a completed capacity assessment, major changes to individual members’ production allocations are considered unlikely before 2027.

Why OPEC+ may prefer to wait

Keeping November targets unchanged would give OPEC+ more time to assess the effect of the regional disruptions on physical oil supply.

Increasing official targets while producers are already struggling to export at normal levels could have limited practical impact.

The group must also consider the potential effect of any policy change on crude prices, inventories and market expectations.

For now, the difference between production targets and actual output remains one of the most important factors shaping the oil market.

What could happen next?

The immediate focus will be on the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting and any guidance concerning December and 2027 production plans.

If the group maintains November targets as expected, attention is likely to shift towards the timing of the delayed capacity review and whether production increases can eventually translate into higher physical exports.

The group still has substantial production cuts in place, while several major producers remain below their nominal targets.

That means the oil market could continue to be influenced as much by actual supply availability and export disruptions as by the official production quotas announced by OPEC+.